Peak Oil - The Basics 
Peak Oil is the point in time when oil production reaches its maximum. Following Peak Oil we will have a continuous decline in oil production. Oil reservoirs peak when they are about half empty. At this point reservoir pressure drops causing less and less oil to be extracted each year and making it harder and harder to extract the oil that remains.
If you group all of the World’s oil reservoirs together, their combined outputs will also peak at the halfway point.
Some History: Meet Dr. Hubbert
In 1949, oil geologist Dr. M. King Hubbert developed the theory of oil depletion, making the prediction that the fossil fuel era would be very short.
It occurred to him that we need to continue discovering oil reserves in order to be assured of a plentiful long term supply. After some clever analysis he predicted that oil discovery would peak in the 1960s. He also proposed that production would peak thirty years later. When he presented his findings, he was laughed out of town.
In 1956 he forecasted that American oil production would reach peak production in 1970. Fourteen years later in 1970 US oil production did peak and, excluding a small rise on the way down following the discovery of oil in Alaska, has declined ever since.
Picture: Dr. Hubbert and his now famous Peak Oil curve. He doesn’t look very pleased about Peak Oil does he? It might be because no-one believed him when he first published his Peak Oil theory. “Run out of oil?” they said, “Are you kidding?” In the 1970s US oil production peaked as Hubbert predicted.Oil Production Relies on Oil Discovery
World oil discovery peaked in the mid-1960s. Ever since then, we’ve discovered less and less oil each year. At the moment we’re consuming around 5 barrels of oil for every 1 we discover. It doesn’t take a scientist to work out that this is unsustainable. This fact has dawned with the International Energy Agency (IEA) when they published the World Energy Outlook in 2008 which called for a new energy order.
Apart from Petrol, why do we need oil?
Oil is an integral part of the post-industrial society we live in. It is a vital part of almost everything we do and everything we consume. Not only is oil used for obvious things like petrol and diesel it is also used for other vital functions like pesticides (for non-organic agriculture) and materials like plastic. In summary, oil underpins:
- Industrial development
- Agriculture
- Economics
- Population
The effect of Peak Oil on our culture could be extreme. Our economy and way of life are based on consuming oil and other fossil fuels.
Increasing Demand
At the same time as oil production peaking, demand is continuing to rise. It’s almost like we think there’s an endless supply! This is largely due to emerging economies like China and India looking to emulate our way of life. In order to do this they need the same source of energy we used to build it: oil and other fossil fuels. As we pass through Peak, this level of fossil fuel consumption isn’t possible or sustainable, not even for developed countries.
Energy from Oil
Oil is an incredibly dense form of energy, storing millions of years of energy from the Sun in a convenient liquid form. It’s amazing to think that a single barrel of oil contains the same energy as 25,000 hours of manual labour (or 12 people working all year)! No other source of energy can match oil in terms of density and availability. If we can’t produce more oil, we need to use less energy.
Are we running out of oil?
It’s important to recognise that Peak Oil does not mean we are running out. Peak Oil marks the end of cheap and plentiful oil and the start of our transition away from cheap fossil fuel energy.
How much oil do we use?
In 2007, the UK consumed 650,000,000 barrels of oil. This was 4% more than we produced, making us dependant on foreign oil imports. The major use of fossil fuels is for food production.
When will production peak?
When the peak oil theory was first proposed, peak was predicted around the late 1990s. However, following the oil crisis in the 1970s - which reduced oil consumption for a sustained period - experts revised estimates to between 2008 and 2012.
Isn’t Peak Oil just a theory?
Think again. Out of the world’s 98 oil producing countries, 68 have peaked. This means that their output is already declining. These countries are marked in red below.
Peak ‘everything’ - Living with finite resources
Bear in mind that Peak Oil is just the start. Resources like coal, oil, natural gas, and uranium are all finite fuels. One day there will be a peak for all of them.
Dealing with Peak Oil
If you’re new to Peak Oil and find it unsettling, fear not! Humans survived before oil (and cheap energy) and we’ll survive after it. The answers lie within our communities and in our past. By combing the skills we once had with the technology we now possess, we can plan a course of energy descent and relocalise the production of everyday goods, bringing our communities closer together again.
For an uplifting view on dealing with Peak Oil, The Power of Community (see below for details) is a must-see film that shows us how communities can overcome an energy famine and build a more sustainable future.
Peak Oil Stress Disorder*
It’s common to feel a bit panicky when you first learn about Peak Oil and the potential impact it will have on our way of life. The best cure for P.O.S.D. is to come along to the next Transition Southampton meeting and help us plan for a future after cheap energy!
* Note: Peak Oil Stress Disorder doesn’t really exist (just in case you were worried about that too!)
More Information on Peak Oil
See our Peak Oil Resources page for more information and links.
